IADA: Encouraging Q3, Possible Surge in Aircraft Sales by Year’s End

The full report, available here, stated that IADA dealers and brokers collectively account for over half of all transactions worldwide. 

IADA’s Perspective Survey of over 1,000 members included dealers and brokers for both new and pre-owned aircraft. 

It showed that, with 58 percent of dealers sharing their results from the July-August-September time frame, IADA dealers reported 144 new acquisition agreements in the third quarter of 2024. This is up 4 percent from the second quarter of the year, but up 22 percent year over year compared with the third quarter in 2023.

While the number of exclusive retainer agreements stayed relatively steady in Q3 2024 from the prior quarter, reduced-price listings were up 49 aircraft year over year.

“While seemingly significant, the 67 percent increase in reduced-price listings, reported Q3 [year over year], is measured from a relatively small base,” the IADA report said. “As expected, price adjustments are a feature of today’s market as the resetting of value expectations continues after post-pandemic highs experienced in 2021 and 2022.”

Reported activity in Q3 2024 included 373 closed deals and was the highest yet recorded for the third quarter since IADA’s Perspective Survey began in 2020.

“Year to date in 2024, the 993 closed deals reported were up 14 percent in volume compared with year-to-date 2023, an indicator of a healthy level of exchange activity in a counterbalancing marketplace—one in which IADA dealers are the preeminent players,” the report said.

The report stated Q3 2024 ended with 874 year-to-date (YTD) business aircraft transactions under contract, up 24 percent from 704 YTD at the end of the Q3 2023.

David Monacell, IADA accredited dealer at CFS Jets, said in the report that he expects a significant surge in Q4 and intensification after the election.

“Those that wait for ballots to be counted will likely deal with limited inspection locations, watered down pre-buys, and/or post closing conditions in order to transact in 2024,” Monacell said in the IADA report.

Scott Oshman, IADA accredited dealer at Oshman Aviation, said in the report that Q2 and Q3 market conditions and transaction volume have exceeded expectations within the midsize jets, light jets, and turboprop segments.

“Specific to midsize business jets, light business jets, and turboprops, inventory is steadily increasing, but demand and absorption are equalizing the increase in inventory,” Oshman said.

IADA chair Phil Winters said in a news release that while summer months may have been light on sentiment toward business aircraft transactions, most of the dealers and brokers are reporting heightened activity over the past month.

“Although there are more sellers coming to market at a greater rate than buyers, the buyers are absorbing that inventory increase with slightly lower pricing than two years ago,” Winters said. “At the end of the third quarter, we seem to be setting up for an active and healthy fourth quarter of this year.”

Additionally, IADA executive director Wayne Starling said in the release that the insurance marketplace is shifting toward a buyer-driven market, contrasting to earlier trends in 2024.

According to data compiled by AMSTAT, a business aviation market research company, cited in the report, the days on market (DOM) rate for aircraft increased by 55 percent over the past 18 months. This trend has stabilized, however, with the DOM rate undergoing a slight 8 percent increase and staying below the 10-year average.

“IADA members also noted that the anticipated slowdown due to geopolitical tensions and the ongoing election cycle had less impact than expected,” IADA said. “Combined with a recent drop in interest rates, the market is now showing promising signs of renewed activity. Hesitation among buyers due to market uncertainty appears to be diminishing, with IADA members encouraging clients to act swiftly as the fourth-quarter market is expected to accelerate.”

The report stated that IADA’s member surveys provide six-month projections for supply, demand, pricing, and dealer willingness to inventory.

Most respondents expect the next six months to show a stable demand and willingness to inventory, except in the large and ultra-long-range jets categories, where projections see both a slight decrease in demand and willingness to inventory.

“A healthy mix of IADA members spanning aircraft financing/leasing, insurance, and sales have reported an increase in business activity in Q3 leading to a more optimistic outlook across the board for the next six months,” the report said. “These experts also believe that buyers have a slightly higher influence on who is driving today’s market while acknowledging that these subtleties can shift based on age, pedigree, and make/model of specific aircraft.”