Honeywell Stands By Optimistic Forecast Numbers

Honeywell Aerospace released its 17th annual 10-year forecast for business aviation at the NBAA show, and the Phoenix-based company remains bullish. At a preshow meeting with journalists, Honeywell addressed the obvious question: Do events of the past two weeks change the outlook of the forecast, which relies on data collected months ago? The answer is, Honeywell remains confident in its numbers, based on the integrity of the data it derives from interviews with current jet operators and other sources. The forecast calls for deliveries of up to 17,000 jets over the 10-year period, representing revenues of some $300 billion. Even the data collected before the economic debacle, however, indicated a slight downturn over the next few years. Predictions are for 1,200 deliveries this year, up from the 1,020 last year, but less than the 1,300 predicted in last year's outlook. A dip is forecast in 2010, but the downturn is thought to be little more than a speed bump, with growth expected to rebound in 2012. But the forecast calls for lower usage of jets, based on rising fuel costs. Conversely to other economic news, oil prices have dropped significantly since the survey data was collected.